INSTITUTIONAL CAPACITY AND BEHAVIORAL OUTCOMES IN EDUCATIONAL CORRECTION ORGANIZATIONS: EVIDENCE FROM CHINA'S SPECIAL SCHOOL SYSTEM

Abstract

The Special School System in China integrates educational rehabilitation with judicial intervention and has become an important approach to preventing juvenile crime. However, its relationship with juvenile crime has received limited empirical attention. This exploratory study examines the statistical association between institutional capacity of the Special School System and juvenile crime by constructing an Institutional Capacity Index (ICIS) based on institutional supply theory. Using time-series data from Shandong Province (2014–2025), baseline regression and first-difference models were employed. After controlling for educational structure, economic development, urbanization, and time trends, ICIS was significantly negatively associated with juvenile crime (coefficient = −3.950, p < 0.01). This association remained robust in the first-difference model (ΔICIS coefficient = −4.443, p < 0.01). Given the limited sample size, findings should be interpreted as exploratory evidence rather than causal inference. This study provides initial empirical evidence on the role of institutional capacity in China's educational rehabilitation system and offers a quantitative framework for evaluating institutional development in juvenile crime prevention. Future research using larger samples is needed to validate these findings.